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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 28

Detroit Lions 31 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(:33) 13-C.Reynolds left end to MIN 23 for 5 yards (0-I.Pace; 97-H.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.68 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP