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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to DET 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 14 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.54 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model