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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 39

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:25) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 9-Ja.Williams pushed ob at MIN 25 for 14 yards (2-S.Gilmore) [44-J.Metellus].

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.72 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model