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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 88

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to DET 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for no gain (26-Th.Jackson; 20-Jy.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 88, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model