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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 23-C.Edwards-Helaire pushed ob at TB 30 for 14 yards (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.96 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model