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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NO
18.2%
TB
81.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.226 vs Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.362 EPA/dropback (NO starting Spencer Rattler in place of Jake Haener)
  • TB offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 18
–
TB 29
Projected margin: TB by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NO

Derek Carr QB Out Left Hand
Kendre Miller RB Out Concussion
Alvin Kamara RB Doubtful Groin
Chris Olave WR Questionable Head
Pete Werner LB Questionable Concussion
Willie Gay LB Questionable Shoulder
Juwan Johnson TE Questionable Knee
Payton Turner DE Questionable Ankle

TB

Jordan Whitehead S Out Neck
Jamel Dean CB Out Knee
Antoine Winfield S Out Knee
Cade Otton TE Doubtful Knee
William Gholston DE Questionable Knee
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 19
–
TB 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:20 FG NO (9:20) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 3 – TB 0
  • Q1 04:56 FG TB (4:56) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. NO 3 – TB 3
  • Q2 14:55 FG NO (14:55) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 6 – TB 3
  • Q2 06:19 TD NO (6:19) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 17-D.Pettis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – TB 3
  • Q2 01:05 FG TB (1:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. NO 13 – TB 6
  • Q2 00:11 FG NO (:11) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 16 – TB 6
  • Q3 10:33 TD TB (10:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 87-P.Durham for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – TB 12
  • Q3 05:58 FG NO (5:58) 19-B.Grupe 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 19 – TB 13
  • Q4 10:18 TD TB (10:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – TB 19
  • Q4 02:00 TD TB (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – TB 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

    (9:20) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 71%

    (4:56) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 91%

    (14:55) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:01) 5-J.Browning punts 52 yards to NO 12, Center-86-E.Deckers. 17-D.Pettis to NO 21 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 46%

    (11:04) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 23-C.Edwards-Helaire pushed ob at TB 30 for 14 yards (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 91%

    (9:00) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 21-Ja.Williams up the middle to TB 15 for 6 yards (32-J.Hayes, 54-L.David).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (1:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (:11) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:29) 43-M.Hayball punts 44 yards to TB 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 77%

    (5:58) 19-B.Grupe 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:31) 5-J.Browning to TB 20 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TB 21. 5-J.Browning punts 14 yards to TB 47, downed by TB-52-K.Britt.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 17 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:25) 43-M.Hayball punts 36 yards to TB 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 51%

    (10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan to NO 9 for 33 yards (0-U.Amadi). PENALTY on TB-15-J.McMillan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 9.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 76%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short left to 11-C.Wilson.