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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 43-M.Hayball punts 44 yards to TB 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model