Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New Orleans Saints 19

(4:31) 5-J.Browning to TB 20 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TB 21. 5-J.Browning punts 14 yards to TB 47, downed by TB-52-K.Britt.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model