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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.94 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP