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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.26 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP