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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.61 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP