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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to LA 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith to LA 21 for 13 yards (19-J.Bobo; 42-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model