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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

SEA
39.9%
LA
60.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
LA 24
Projected margin: LA by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

SEA

Brandon Pili DT Out Illness
Josh Jobe CB Out Knee
Abraham Lucas T Out Abdomen
Byron Murphy DT Questionable Back

LA

Rob Havenstein T Out Shoulder
Kevin Dotson G Doubtful Coach's Decision
Alaric Jackson T Doubtful Coach's Decision
Cooper Kupp WR Doubtful Coach's Decision
Puka Nacua WR Doubtful Not injury related - other
Matthew Stafford QB Doubtful Coach's Decision
Kyren Williams RB Doubtful Coach's Decision

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 30
–
LA 25

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:24 TD SEA (5:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 19-J.Bobo for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 00:41 FG LA (:41) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SEA 7 – LA 3
  • Q2 12:55 TD SEA (12:55) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – LA 3
  • Q2 08:51 TD LA (8:51) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – LA 9
  • Q2 03:27 FG SEA (3:27) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – LA 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG LA (:03) 16-J.Karty 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SEA 17 – LA 13
  • Q3 07:59 FG LA (7:59) 16-J.Karty 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SEA 17 – LA 16
  • Q3 03:05 TD SEA (3:05) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 88-A.Barner for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – LA 16
  • Q4 12:48 TD LA (12:48) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 18-T.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 24 – LA 22
  • Q4 07:33 FG LA (7:33) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SEA 24 – LA 25
  • Q4 03:24 TD SEA (3:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – LA 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to LA 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:43) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to SEA 28, Center-47-A.Ward. 1-J.Darden ran ob at SEA 45 for 17 yards (20-R.Rivers).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:22) 88-J.Whittington left end to SEA 49 for 5 yards (8-C.Bryant).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 93%

    (:41) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%

    (3:27) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 34%

    (1:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to LA 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith to LA 21 for 13 yards (19-J.Bobo; 42-D.Thomas).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 64%

    (7:59) 16-J.Karty 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to LA 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith to LA 22 for 17 yards (88-A.Barner).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (7:33) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:35) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to SEA 49 for 17 yards (13-E.Jones; 2-R.Jenkins) [90-Ja.Reed].

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington.