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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 22 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.00 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model