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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 25 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.13 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP