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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to ARI 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 18 for 7 yards (22-I.Yiadom). FUMBLES (22-I.Yiadom), ball out of bounds at ARI 22.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP