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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

SF
32.5%
ARI
67.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.112 vs Joshua Dobbs (SF) -0.174 EPA/dropback (SF starting Joshua Dobbs in place of Brock Purdy)
  • ARI offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 21
–
ARI 26
Projected margin: ARI by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

SF

Robert Beal DE Out Ankle
Spencer Burford G Out Calf
Deommodore Lenoir CB Out Shoulder
Brock Purdy QB Out Right Elbow
Deebo Samuel WR Out Ribs
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Doubtful Calf
Ji'Ayir Brown S Questionable Ankle
George Kittle TE Questionable Ankle
Colton McKivitz T Questionable Knee
Isaac Yiadom CB Questionable Pelvis

ARI

Matt Prater K Out Left Knee
Victor Dimukeje LB Questionable Eye
Jackson Barton T Questionable Ankle
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Toe
Mack Wilson LB Questionable Ankle
Michael Wilson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 24
–
ARI 47

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:53 FG SF (12:53) 4-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell. SF 3 – ARI 0
  • Q1 01:01 FG ARI (1:01) 38-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy. SF 3 – ARI 3
  • Q2 13:03 TD ARI (13:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-G.Dortch for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – ARI 9
  • Q2 05:51 TD SF (5:51) 5-J.Dobbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – ARI 10
  • Q2 01:55 TD ARI (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – ARI 16
  • Q2 00:21 TD SF (:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-R.Pearsall for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – ARI 17
  • Q2 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy. SF 17 – ARI 20
  • Q3 08:32 TD ARI (8:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-G.Dortch for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – ARI 26
  • Q3 04:58 TD SF (4:58) 5-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – ARI 26
  • Q4 14:21 TD ARI (14:21) (Shotgun) 22-M.Carter left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 24 – ARI 32
  • Q4 05:52 TD ARI (5:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-M.Harrison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 24 – ARI 39
  • Q4 01:57 TD ARI (1:57) 37-T.Jones up the middle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 24 – ARI 46

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 76%

    (12:53) 4-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:21) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to SF 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 83%

    (3:45) 4-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-D.Dallas. 20-D.Dallas left guard to SF 35 for 22 yards (22-I.Yiadom).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 76%

    (1:01) 38-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:30) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to ARI 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 18 for 7 yards (22-I.Yiadom). FUMBLES (22-I.Yiadom), ball out of bounds at ARI 22.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:00) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to SF 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:44) 10-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to SF 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:51) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to ARI 34, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-G.Dortch to SF 49 for 17 yards (88-J.Tonges).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 49%

    (5:42) 32-P.Taylor right tackle to ARI 36 for 9 yards (21-G.Williams, 34-J.Thompson).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:23) 10-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to SF 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Cowing to SF 34 for 15 yards (36-A.Chachere; 20-D.Dallas).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 54%

    (4:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 32-P.Taylor [7-K.White].

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 41%

    (2:00) 15-C.Tune up the middle to SF 46 for 2 yards (69-E.Anderson).