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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 4-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -2.17 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.02 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP