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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 20 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 10-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to SF 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP