Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 20

(11:51) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to ARI 34, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-G.Dortch to SF 49 for 17 yards (88-J.Tonges).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.54 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 84, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model