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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to SF 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model