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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 4-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.85 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model