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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-D.Dallas. 20-D.Dallas left guard to SF 35 for 22 yards (22-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model