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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 33

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 38-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model