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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to WAS 20, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 22, RECOVERED by DAL-29-C.Goodwin at WAS 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model