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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

WAS
61.0%
DAL
39.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • WAS defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

WAS 26
–
DAL 22
Projected margin: WAS by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

WAS

Marshon Lattimore CB Out Hamstring
Jordan Magee LB Out Hamstring
Tyler Owens S Out Ankle
Tyler Biadasz C Doubtful Ankle
Cornelius Lucas T Doubtful Groin
Quan Martin S Questionable Illness
K.J. Osborn WR Questionable Illness
Tyler Ott LS Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Austin Ekeler RB Questionable Concussion

DAL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 23
–
DAL 19

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:24 FG DAL (8:24) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 0 – DAL 3
  • Q2 12:45 FG DAL (12:45) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on WAS-94-D.Payne, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 04:44 FG WAS (4:44) 47-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – DAL 6
  • Q3 08:55 FG DAL (8:55) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 3 – DAL 9
  • Q3 05:10 TD WAS (5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – DAL 9
  • Q4 13:55 FG DAL (13:55) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 10 – DAL 12
  • Q4 11:22 TD WAS (11:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – DAL 12
  • Q4 07:06 TD DAL (7:06) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – DAL 18
  • Q4 00:06 TD WAS (:06) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 22 – DAL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:02) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 29 for 13 yards (36-C.Rodriguez). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at DAL 17.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (8:24) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 19 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:09) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 10, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-57-N.Bellore.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:33) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to WAS 28, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for no gain (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:40) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to DAL 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:54) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to WAS 20, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 22, RECOVERED by DAL-29-C.Goodwin at WAS 22.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (12:45) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on WAS-94-D.Payne, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:36) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 25, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:51) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to WAS 14, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 37 for 23 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 83%

    (4:44) 47-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 68%

    (1:50) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to WAS 32 for 5 yards (4-F.Luvu).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (:24) (Shotgun) 19-T.Lance pass incomplete short left to 23-R.Dowdle.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

    (8:55) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (13:55) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (3:25) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to WAS 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 39%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).