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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on WAS-94-D.Payne, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model