Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

(10:36) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 25, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model