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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 17 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to WAS 14, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 37 for 23 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.30 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model