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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 2 at the 2
Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(:24) (Shotgun) 19-T.Lance pass incomplete short left to 23-R.Dowdle.
The Three Options
GO
+3.43 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.53 EP
- 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.10 EP
KICK
+2.55 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
