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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 4

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:55) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP