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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.31 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP