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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 63

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 10, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-57-N.Bellore.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model