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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 83

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to WAS 28, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for no gain (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model