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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to DAL 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model