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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 39

Denver Broncos 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to BUF 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP