4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2025-01-12 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 7.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DEN
37.3%
BUF
62.7%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.216 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.243 vs Bo Nix (DEN) +0.166 EPA/dropback (BUF starting Josh Allen in place of Mitchell Trubisky)
  • DEN defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

DEN

Frank Crum T Out Illness
Tyler Badie RB Questionable Back

BUF

Brandon Codrington CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 7
–
BUF 31

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:43 TD DEN (12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot]. DEN 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 07:10 FG BUF (7:10) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. DEN 7 – BUF 3
  • Q2 13:02 TD BUF (13:02) 4-J.Cook left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – BUF 9
  • Q3 10:06 FG BUF (10:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. DEN 7 – BUF 13
  • Q3 03:15 TD BUF (3:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 26-Ty.Johnson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 7 – BUF 19
  • Q4 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 1-C.Samuel for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – BUF 27
  • Q4 04:41 FG BUF (4:41) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. DEN 7 – BUF 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 95%

    (8:28) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to DEN 11 for 3 yards (92-D.Tillman).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (7:10) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to BUF 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 19 for 7 yards (41-D.Sanders).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:49) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short left to 19-M.Mims to BUF 42 for 15 yards (46-J.Ingram).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%

    (8:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to BUF 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:00) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-M.Mims to DEN 15 for no gain (13-M.Hollins). PENALTY on DEN-19-M.Mims, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at DEN 15.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (10:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to BUF 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 87%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 26-Ty.Johnson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to BUF 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 41 for 23 yards (9-R.Dixon).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 95%

    (11:37) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin pushed ob at BUF 14 for no gain (39-C.Lewis). BUF-39-C.Lewis was injured during the play.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (4:41) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 17 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 3-D.Hamlin at DEN 48. 3-D.Hamlin to DEN 45 for 3 yards (14-C.Sutton). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton.