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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 75

Denver Broncos 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to BUF 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model