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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 24

Buffalo Bills 13 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 26-Ty.Johnson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.54 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model