Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 71

Denver Broncos 7 – Buffalo Bills 21

(1:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to BUF 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 41 for 23 yards (9-R.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model