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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 14

Denver Broncos 7 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(11:37) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin pushed ob at BUF 14 for no gain (39-C.Lewis). BUF-39-C.Lewis was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.89 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model