Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 77

Denver Broncos 7 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 3-D.Hamlin at DEN 48. 3-D.Hamlin to DEN 45 for 3 yards (14-C.Sutton). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.31 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.63 EP