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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 14

Buffalo Bills 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(8:28) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to DEN 11 for 3 yards (92-D.Tillman).

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.31 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model