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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.52 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP