Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 65

Denver Broncos 7 – Buffalo Bills 3

(5:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to BUF 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 19 for 7 yards (41-D.Sanders).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.63 EP
51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model