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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 39 for -11 yards (91-K.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.54 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model