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Minnesota Vikings

14-3 HC Kevin O'Connell
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Los Angeles Rams

10-7 HC Sean McVay
Monday 2025-01-13 · 20:00 ET State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIN
58.6%
LA
41.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • LA offense: +0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 26 19–33
–
LA 24 17–31
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

MIN

Patrick Jones DE Out Knee
Cam Akers RB Questionable Illness
Taki Taimani DT Questionable Ankle

LA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 9
–
LA 27

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:28 TD LA (10:28) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 04:05 FG LA (4:05) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. MIN 0 – LA 10
  • Q2 14:20 FG MIN (14:20) 16-W.Reichard 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 3 – LA 10
  • Q2 04:48 TD LA (4:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at LA 46 for -8 yards (4-A.Witherspoon). FUMBLES (4-A.Witherspoon) [4-A.Witherspoon], RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 43. 8-J.Verse for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – LA 16
  • Q2 00:21 TD LA (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 87-D.Allen for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-H.Smith]. MIN 3 – LA 23
  • Q3 07:24 FG LA (7:24) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. MIN 3 – LA 27
  • Q3 05:14 TD MIN (5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-4-A.Witherspoon was injured during the play. MIN 9 – LA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:22) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to LA 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-X.Smith to LA 22 for 8 yards (32-T.Chandler).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (4:05) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 95%

    (14:20) 16-W.Reichard 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:05) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to MIN 23, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-B.Powell MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIN 27.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:32) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to MIN 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 36%

    (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 39 for -11 yards (91-K.Turner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 36%

    (13:38) 17-R.Wright punts 27 yards to LA 23, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (7:24) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:14) 42-E.Evans punts 54 yards to MIN 4, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:34) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (6:42) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to MIN 30 for 1 yard (90-T.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%

    (3:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 34%

    (2:40) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Sherfield (24-D.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →