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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 17-R.Wright punts 27 yards to LA 23, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP