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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 42-E.Evans punts 54 yards to MIN 4, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model