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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model